Abstract
Investigating the causes of the spatial heterogeneity of glacial changes offers vital information about glacial behavior and provides forecasting ability to define where glacier retreat may occur in the future. This study was designed to determine the spatial distribution of Ağrı Mountain glacier vulnerability. The main goal of the current study was to assess the forecasting capabilities of Geographical Information System (GIS)-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for determining the location of the mountain glacier retreat. To estimate the glacier retreat, the following criteria were selected: elevation, aspect, slope, direction, and glacier surface temperature anomaly (GSTA). The entropy method was used for weighting the criteria for the evaluation of the vulnerable areas of the glacier. The results of this method clearly indicate a strong relationship between GSTA, direction, and elevation criteria and glacier retreat. The glacier vulnerability map was created by synthesizing criteria layers with their weights. The vulnerability map provided a consistency of 77.8% in the short term and 92.1% in the long term. In the study, the priority melting zones were determined and glacial retreat locations were forecasted in 10-year periods.
Highlights
Glacier changes are an important component of the climate system and play a key role in climate change [1]
A major part of the studies on this subject has been carried out using remote sensing techniques [8,9,10,11,12] and geographical information systems (GIS) [13,14,15,16]
This study aimed to explore the use and forecasting capabilities of the GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model, which is used the first time for determining vulnerable glacier zones
Summary
Glacier changes are an important component of the climate system and play a key role in climate change [1]. These changes are regarded as highly reliable indicators of global warming trends and used for early detection strategies in global climate observations. Glacier changes can be analyzed using active or passive remote sensing systems. The use of passive system satellite sensors, which produce significant results in examining glacier changes, is gradually increasing [1]. Recent advances in GIS methods have further facilitated the investigation of glacier changes, and GIS has become an increasingly important tool for such studies [17]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
