A GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Analysis Framework to Evaluate Urban Physical Resilience against Earthquakes

Abstract

As complex man-made systems that are home to the majority of the world population, cities have always faced a wide range of risks such as earthquakes. As the backbone of urban systems, physical components, including buildings, transportation networks, communication networks, and open and green spaces, are also vulnerable to disasters. To enhance the capacity to deal with disaster risks, enhancing urban resilience has recently become an essential priority for cities. This study aims to develop and pilot test a framework to evaluate urban physical resilience based on resilience characteristics and associated physical indicators. Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) was used to determine the relationships between physical indicators, and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making methods were applied to determine the relative importance of the characteristics. The results showed that the ‘Robustness of Building’, ‘Building Density’, ‘Aspect Ratio’, and ‘Street Width’ are the most important among the twenty physical indicators considered in the proposed framework. Subsequently, the proposed framework was applied to one of the districts of Kerman, a major city located in the southwest, earthquake-prone part of Iran. Overall results indicate low levels of physical resilience. The findings of this study can provide urban planners and decision-makers with more transparent and practical insights into the physical resilience of cities. Results can also be used to design and implement policies and programs to improve the current conditions.