A GIS-Based Fuzzy Model to Detect Critical Polluted Urban Areas in Presence of Heatwave Scenarios

Abstract

This research presents a new method for detecting urban areas critical for the presence of air pollutants during periods of heatwaves. The proposed method uses a geospatial model based on the construction of Thiessen polygons and a fuzzy model based on assessing, starting from air quality control unit measurement data, how concentrations of air pollutants are distributed in the urban study area during periods of heatwaves and determine the most critical areas as hotspots. The proposed method represents an optimal trade-off between the accuracy of the detection of critical areas and the computational speed; the use of fuzzy techniques for assessing the intensity of concentrations of air pollutants allows evaluators to model the assessments of critical areas more naturally. The method is implemented in a GIS-based platform and has been tested in the city of Bologna, Italy. The resulting criticality maps of PM10, NO2, and PM2.5 pollutants during a heatwave period that occurred from 10 to 14 July 2023 revealed highly critical hotspots with high pollutant concentrations in densely populated areas. This framework provides a portable and easily interpretable decision support tool which allows you to evaluate which urban areas are most affected by air pollution during heatwaves, potentially posing health risks to the exposed population.