A GIS-based analysis of open space and the likelihood of crime hotspot in Abuja city centre

Abstract

In recent times, reported incidences of crimes in Abuja City Centre have taken a worrisome dimension with attendant socio-economic impacts including loss of lives and properties. The occurrence of some of these crimes are possible because of the presence of some open spaces around the crime locations. As cities grow, one feature that easily get altered is the open space. Some open spaces lose their original plans, others become abandoned and overgrown with bushes thus serving as hideouts for criminals. Open spaces play a major role in the development of modern cities and are usually prioritized in planning such cities. Using geospatial techniques: kernel density analysis, average nearest neighbour analysis on ArcGIS, as well as the statistical analysis of the questionnaires, this study identified and examined the characteristics of open spaces in Abuja City Centre and their likelihood of being crime hotspots. The study used both primary and secondary data. Primary data used were responses from questionnaires and interviews as well as the geographic coordinates of the locations while the shapefile of the study area, road network and waterway data, all sourced from Grid3 databank constitute the secondary data. Hotspot analysis using ArcGIS 10.4.1 was carried out to identify crime hotspots. The study reveals that theft, mischief, assault, robbery and pick pocketing were the dominant types of crime occurring within Abuja City Centre especially around some open spaces accounting for 100%, 81%, 78%, 69% and 58% of the crimes respectively. The results further revealed that theft was prevalent in all the open spaces examined. Also, using average nearest neighbour analysis, this study discovered that the spatial pattern of crime in Abuja City Centre was dispersed. The study also highlights the application of geospatial techniques in crime modeling in urban centres like Abuja City Centre.