A GIS and hybrid simulation aided environmental impact assessment of city-scale demolition waste management

Abstract

• Scant attention is paid to environmental impact of demolition waste management (DWM). • We propose a novel evaluation model that combines GIS and system hybrid simulation. • We verify the efficacy of the model through an empirical analysis in Shenzhen, China. • The model is a promising tool to assess environmental impact of city-scale DWM. A considerable amount of demolition waste (DW) generated by urbanization and urban renewal has brought significant threats to the environment. However, there is a serious lack of environmental impact assessment towards city-scale demolition waste management (DWM), particularly from the systematical and dynamical perspective. Traditionally the assessment has been conducted from a static perspective. The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively evaluate the environmental impact of city-scale DWM from a complex system perspective. A novel evaluation model was developed by innovatively integrating the geographic information system (GIS) and system hybrid simulation consisting of system dynamics (SD), agent-based modeling (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES). The proposed model was verified. Based on an empirical analysis of Shenzhen, China, it is found that the environmental impact of city-scale DWM is mainly concentrated in the central and northeastern regions of Shenzhen, demonstrating spatial heterogeneity and regional aggregation. Furthermore, the results reveal that the model is robust and effective to assess environmental impact from four aspects, i.e., land occupation, water pollution, air pollution and energy consumption. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the status quo of city-scale DWM and accompanying environmental impacts, and coordinating various district governments to formulate effective DWM policies.