A geomorphologic and hydrologic evaluation of an extraordinary flood discharge estimate: Bronco Creek, Arizona

Abstract

The Bronco Creek, Arizona flood of August 19, 1971, was an extraordinary and rare flash flood. The published peak discharge estimate of 2080 m3 s−1 makes it virtually the world's largest known rainfall‐generated flood to come from a 50‐km2 basin. Previous workers have suggested that the peak discharge was overestimated based on its unlikely hydrological and hydraulic implications. In this study we reevaluate the Bronco Creek flood discharge by modeling peak discharges using relict high‐water marks in bedrock canyon reaches near the mouths of the three major subbasins of the watershed. The new estimated peak discharge of 750 to 850 m3 s−1 is based on summing the subbasin estimates and correcting for omitted drainage area. Qualitative and quantitative analyses of site‐specific and regional hydrological, meteorological, and geomorphological information support a lower peak discharge. We assessed preflood and postflood channel characteristics at the site of the original estimate using historical aerial photographs. Our analysis indicates that much of the discrepancy between the estimates may be explained by significant morphologic changes in the channel caused by the flood. The original estimate was made in a wide, high‐gradient alluvial channel where the flood changed the channel pattern from braided with vegetated bars to straight, wide, and devoid of vegetation. It is also likely that net vertical scour occurred in the channel. Although our new estimate is much lower than the original estimate, it is consistent with the dominant trend in regional flood magnitude‐drainage area relationships. By integrating hydraulic modeling of peak discharges in stable channel reaches with assessment of ancillary hydrological, meteorological, and geomorphological information, this study presents a viable approach to assessing the accuracy of extreme flood estimates in general. It also highlights potential uncertainties in estimating extreme flood discharges in steep, alluvial channels.