A geomorphic approach to 100-year floodplain mapping for the Conterminous United States

Abstract

Floodplain mapping using hydrodynamic models is difficult in data scarce regions. Additionally, using hydrodynamic models to map floodplain over large stream network can be computationally challenging. Some of these limitations of floodplain mapping using hydrodynamic modeling can be overcome by developing computationally efficient statistical methods to identify floodplains in large and ungauged watersheds using publicly available data. This paper proposes a geomorphic model to generate probabilistic 100-year floodplain maps for the Conterminous United States (CONUS). The proposed model first categorizes the watersheds in the CONUS into three classes based on the height of the water surface corresponding to the 100-year flood from the streambed. Next, the probability that any watershed in the CONUS belongs to one of these three classes is computed through supervised classification using watershed characteristics related to topography, hydrography, land use and climate. The result of this classification is then fed into a probabilistic threshold binary classifier (PTBC) to generate the probabilistic 100-year floodplain maps. The supervised classification algorithm is trained by using the 100-year Flood Insurance Rated Maps (FIRM) from the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). FEMA FIRMs are also used to validate the performance of the proposed model in areas not included in the training. Additionally, HEC-RAS model generated flood inundation extents are used to validate the model performance at fifteen sites that lack FEMA maps. Validation results show that the probabilistic 100-year floodplain maps, generated by proposed model, match well with both FEMA and HEC-RAS generated maps. On average, the error of predicted flood extents is around 14% across the CONUS. The high accuracy of the validation results shows the reliability of the geomorphic model as an alternative approach for fast and cost effective delineation of 100-year floodplains for the CONUS.