A Geometrical Model to Predict the Spatial Expansion of Sorghum Halepense in Maize Fields

Abstract

New technologies, such as Differential Global Positioning Systems (DGPS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), may be useful in order to create models to predict the spatio-temporal behaviour of weeds. The aim of this study was to generate a geometric model able to predict the patch expansion of S. halepense, a problematic perennial weed in maize crops in Central Spain. From previous infestation maps, the model describes new possible spreading areas for the upcoming growing season, and therefore, herbicide treatments can be planned on time. Two different experiments were implemented, in which initial patch density and size were examined. Patches of different size (1, 10 and 100 m2) and density (4, 20 and 100 shoots m−2), were established. These patches were visually identified, their perimeter defined and their density characterized, during three growing seasons (from 2008 to 2010 campaigns). According to this information different descriptors were built: (1) area and density of each patch; (2) the relative growth in width and length, according to space and time and compared with previous years; and (3) the increased density ratio, calculated in relation of patch size and distance to previous patch in the new infestation areas of expansion. All these descriptors were added to the model in order to predict the patch expansion in the last studied season (i. e., 2010) using previous maps (i. e., season 2008 and 2009). The model uses geometrical assimilation to predict, and two expansion assumptions were considered: (a) a conservative approach based on triangular geometry; and (b) a rectangular geometry which maximizes the simulated infested area. The results were compared with the ground truth map created in 2010. Each method showed weaknesses and strengths. The triangular approach minimized the infested area, mainly in the small patches, and therefore it could predict the expansion of previously established patches, but not the emergence of new ones. In contrast, the rectangular approach simulated the position of new foci, maximizing the infested area. Therefore, although a substantial reduction of herbicides is possible using both models, a final decision must be taken individually for each field.