A Geo-Statistical Analysis of the Impact of Ecological and Environmental Risks on Epidemiology in the South-west, Nigeria

Abstract

Introduction: The probability of contamination is frequently elevated in scenarios where a well and pit latrine coexist, or in situations where heavy rain causes the overflow of open excreta dumps, which in turn flush into wells and surface water. Many possible negative health effects might arise from exposure to various ecological and biological agents in the environment. Therefore, there is a need to examine the risk of disease transmission in Ife North Local Government Area (LGA) of Osun state, using epidemiological, environmental, and ecological factors.
 Materials and Methods: Geostatistical analysis was used to examine the epidemiological risk, based on various environmental, biological, and ecological variables. The technique employed demonstrated the complexity and multiple parameters that raise the probability of an epidemic. The Shapiro-Wilk test was used to determine whether or not the data were normally distributed. Fuzzy logic, correlation, and spline surface interpolation analysis were conducted using ArcGIS 10.3 and ENVI 5.0 software. Three levels of epidemic risk were used to construct the disease surveillance and projection maps.
 Results: According to the final susceptibility map, 8.08 km2 of 460.12 km2 of the research area were considered to be at very low risk for an epidemic, followed by 364.98km2 of low risk and 87.06km2 of moderate risk areas, with percentages of 1.75%, 79.32%, and 18.92%, respectively.
 Conclusion: A very substantial correlation was observed between biological and ecological components and water-borne diseases. It is, therefore, advised that all water sources be treated before consumption, and community involvement be encouraged in environmental sanitation programs.