A genetic analogue of 'mark-recapture' methods for estimating population size: an approach based on molecular parentage assessments.

D E Pearse,C M Eckerman,F J Janzen,J C Avise

doi:10.1046/j.0962-1083.2001.01391.x

D E Pearse, C M Eckerman + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0962-1083.2001.01391.x

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Journal: Molecular Ecology	Publication Date: Nov 1, 2001
Citations: 58	License type: cc-by

Affiliation: Iowa State University, University of Georgia

Abstract

Molecular polymorphisms have been used in a variety of ways to estimate both effective and local census population sizes in nature. A related approach for estimating the current size of a breeding population, explored here for the first time, is the use of genetic 'marks' reconstructed for otherwise unknown parents in paternity or maternity analyses of progeny arrays. This method provides interesting similarities and contrasts to traditional mark-recapture methods based on physical tags. To illustrate, this genetic method is applied to a population of painted turtles on the Mississippi River to estimate the number of successfully breeding males. Non-genetic mark-recapture approaches were also applied to animals trapped at this location. Results demonstrate that such genetic data on parentage can be helpful not only in estimating contemporary population sizes, but also in providing additional information, not present in customary mark-recapture data, about possible extended movements of breeding individuals and the size of the pool of mates which they encounter.

Highlights

Molecular genetic markers have found wide application in population ecology and behaviour, ranging from assessments of genetic parentage and mating systems to explorations of deep phylogeographic and demographic history (Hoelzel & Dover 1991; Avise 1994, 2000; Carvalho 1998)
Each fingerprint is treated as a ‘mark’, and a ‘recapture’ is recorded whenever an identical genotype is found in two separate DNA samples from
The molecular markers used in this study are highly variable (20–27 alleles per locus, mean expected heterozygosity = 0.87), and, suggest a high degree of confidence that any genetic match between two deduced multilocus genotypes truly earmarks one unique male as the sire of both clutches

Summary

Introduction

Molecular genetic markers have found wide application in population ecology and behaviour, ranging from assessments of genetic parentage and mating systems to explorations of deep phylogeographic and demographic history (Hoelzel & Dover 1991; Avise 1994, 2000; Carvalho 1998). With regard to estimating population sizes, at least two genetic approaches have been used. The first assesses the long-term, evolutionary effective size (Ne) of a population by applying neutrality theory to observed standing levels of genetic variation The second employs observed temporal variances in allele frequencies across several generations to estimate a shorter term Ne for a population (Waples 1989; Hedgecock et al 1992; Scribner et al 1997; Fiumera et al 2000). Other ‘genetic tagging’ approaches (Palsbøll 1999; Mills et al 2000), similar to photo-identification methods (Mace et al 1994), have recently been used to estimate census size in a population (Palsbøll et al 1997; Taberlet et al 1997, 1999; Kohn et al 1999). Each fingerprint is treated as a ‘mark’, and a ‘recapture’ is recorded whenever an identical genotype is found in two separate DNA samples from

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