Abstract
Abstract. The use of different methods for physical flood vulnerability assessment has evolved over time, from traditional single-parameter stage–damage curves to multi-parameter approaches such as multivariate or indicator-based models. However, despite the extensive implementation of these models in flood risk assessment globally, a considerable gap remains in their applicability to data-scarce regions. Considering that these regions are mostly areas with a limited capacity to cope with disasters, there is an essential need for assessing the physical vulnerability of the built environment and contributing to an improvement of flood risk reduction. To close this gap, we propose linking approaches with reduced data requirements, such as vulnerability indicators (integrating major damage drivers) and damage grades (integrating frequently observed damage patterns). First, we present a review of current studies of physical vulnerability indicators and flood damage models comprised of stage–damage curves and the multivariate methods that have been applied to predict damage grades. Second, we propose a new conceptual framework for assessing the physical vulnerability of buildings exposed to flood hazards that has been specifically tailored for use in data-scarce regions. This framework is operationalized in three steps: (i) developing a vulnerability index, (ii) identifying regional damage grades, and (iii) linking resulting index classes with damage patterns, utilizing a synthetic “what-if” analysis. The new framework is a first step for enhancing flood damage prediction to support risk reduction in data-scarce regions. It addresses selected gaps in the literature by extending the application of the vulnerability index for damage grade prediction through the use of a synthetic multi-parameter approach. The framework can be adapted to different data-scarce regions and allows for integrating possible modifications to damage drivers and damage grades.
Highlights
The magnitude and frequency of floods and their impact on elements at risk have increased globally (Quevauviller, 2014)
Considering that these regions are mostly areas with a limited capacity to cope with disasters, there is an essential need for assessing the physical vulnerability of the built environment and contributing to an improvement of flood risk reduction
With increasing magnitudes and frequencies of floods, assessing the physical vulnerability of exposed communities is crucial for reducing risk (UNISDR, 2015)
Summary
The magnitude and frequency of floods and their impact on elements at risk have increased globally (Quevauviller, 2014). Stage–damage curves show the relationship between flood depths and the degree of impact (e.g. damage grades, relative or absolute monetary loss) These curves are developed using empirical data or expert knowledge (Merz et al, 2010). Since damage grades are comparable for similar building types (Maiwald and Schwarz, 2015), they improve the transferability of flood damage models (Wagenaar et al, 2017) Another approach increasingly used to assess physical vulnerability is based on vulnerability indicators (Barroca et al, 2006; Barnett et al, 2008; Papathoma-Köhle et al, 2017). Godfrey et al (2015), using Romania as a case study, combined an approach based on vulnerability indicators and an approach based on stage–damage curves to develop an expert-based model for data-scarce regions.
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