A General Computational Framework for COVID-19 Modelling with Applications to Testing Varied Interventions in Education Environments

Joshua W Moore,Trevor C Dale,Zechariah Lau,Katerina Kaouri,Thomas E Woolley

doi:10.3390/covid1040055

Abstract

We construct a spatially-compartmental, individual-based model of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in indoor spaces. The model can be used to predict the infection rates in a variety of locations when various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are introduced. Tasked by the Welsh Government, we apply the model to secondary schools and to Further and Higher Education environments. Specifically, we consider student populations mixing in a classroom and in halls of residence. We focus on assessing the potential efficacy of Lateral Flow Devices (LFDs) when used in broad-based screens for asymptomatic infection or in ‘test-to-release’ scenarios in which individuals who have been exposed to infection are released from isolation after a negative LFD result. LFDs are also compared to other NPIs; we find that, although LFD testing can be used to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, it is more effective to invest in personal protective equipment, e.g., masks, and in increasing ventilation quality. In addition, we provide an open-access and user-friendly online applet that simulates the model, complete with user tutorials to encourage the use of the model to aid educational policy decisions as input infection data becomes available.

Highlights

When the COVID-19 pandemic started sweeping across the globe [1,2,3], governments tried to stem spread by imposing national lockdowns during which essential sectors, such as education, were shut down, or moved online [4]
It has been suggested that a negative result from an Lateral Flow Devices (LFDs) might be used to discontinue the self-isolation of people who are a close contact of an infected individual [19,20,21], with trepidation caused by the fact that LFDs have a high false-negative rate [22]
Investigated how beneficial LFDs can be in comparison to other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as wearing masks or improving ventilation, as recent literature has reported that despite its success the vaccination programme has led to a reduction in compliance to contact and isolation policies with cases again rising [23]

Summary

Introduction

When the COVID-19 pandemic started sweeping across the globe [1,2,3], governments tried to stem spread by imposing national lockdowns during which essential sectors, such as education, were shut down, or moved online [4]. There have been extensive efforts to get students, across all age ranges, back into schools, colleges and universities [5,6,7,8]. There has been a vigorous debate about the role of schools and universities in disease transmission and, as such, a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been proposed and implemented in the education sector [13,14,15]. Investigated how beneficial LFDs can be in comparison to other NPIs, such as wearing masks or improving ventilation, as recent literature has reported that despite its success the vaccination programme has led to a reduction in compliance to contact and isolation policies with cases again rising [23].

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Conclusion