Abstract
Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease similar to smallpox. Its fatality rate is about 11% and it is endemic to the Central and West African countries. In this paper, we analyze a compartmental model of MPX dynamics. Our goal is to see whether MPX can be controlled and eradicated by voluntary vaccinations. We show that there are three equilibria—disease free, fully endemic and previously neglected semi-endemic (with disease existing only among humans). The existence of semi-endemic equilibrium has severe implications should the MPX virus mutate to increased viral fitness in humans. We find that MPX is controllable and can be eradicated in a semi-endemic equilibrium by vaccination. However, in a fully endemic equilibrium, MPX cannot be eradicated by vaccination alone.
Highlights
Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease that has the potential to develop into one of the most threatening human Orthopoxvirus infections since the eradication of smallpox (Durski et al, 2018)
We provide closed-form formulas for equilibrium states of MPX dynamics; the formulas provided in Usman & Adamu (2017) do not allow for direct calculations of the equilibria
∗ is the fully endemic equilibrium with disease occurring amongst humans as well as squirrels
Summary
Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease that has the potential to develop into one of the most threatening human Orthopoxvirus infections since the eradication of smallpox (Durski et al, 2018). The causative agent of MPX is monkeypox virus (MPXV), found in the same genus as the variola virus (smallpox), vaccinia virus, and cowpox virus (Shchelkunov, Marennikova & Moyer, 2006; Sklenovská & Van Ranst, 2018). West African and Central African strains of MPXV exist, the latter of which is more virulent and symptomatically severe (Likos et al, 2005; Mwamba et al, 2014). In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) the mortality rate of the Central African strain is 11% (Ježek et al, 1987).
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