Abstract
We live in the world of ambiguity and uncertainty. In such a fuzzy world, using tools that are close to natural language and have the ability to conclude like human mind, and even deal with more data and complex relations are important. This paper provides a fuzzy statistical expert system for cash flow management, one of the most important issues in business. It helps managers in managing their organizational cash resources. For this purpose, first input and output variables and their membership functions have been defined. Then, we formed rules using fuzzy inference system to infer ending cash balance from a set of combination of 25 separate rules. Finally, linguistic levels converted to certain numbers by centered method (defuzzification) to help managers to see the effects of changes in the levels of inputs on ending cash balances. defuzzification represents the relationship between the variables with numerical values. The required data for practical illustration of our mode is gathered from Cement Companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange, which their financial reports are prepared based on Iranian Accounting Standards. The authors believe that the proposed system helps managers to analyze the effects of changes in input variables on ending cash balances.
Highlights
The importance of cash flows for business units is of no doubt
Cheng and Roy (2011) developed an Evolutionary Fuzzy Support Vector Machine Inference Model for Time Series Data (EFSIMT), an Artificial Intelligence (AI) hybrid system focusing on the management of time series data characteristics which fuses fuzzy logic (FL), weighted support vector machines and a fast messy genetic algorithm, represents a promising alternative approach to predicting cash flow
Final step was defuzzification or converting linguistic levels to certain numbers by centered method to help managers to see the effects of changes in the levels of inputs on the output variables, ending cash balances
Summary
The importance of cash flows for business units is of no doubt. Cash is the ideal in the business world, which business cycle starts with and ends to it. As Yuan (2009) states “when market fluctuations cannot be predicted with certainty, managers have to make decisions under condition of uncertainty Under these conditions, decisions to make or not are often based on managers’ human intuitions, common sense and experience, rather than on the availability of clear, concise and accurate data”. Resent advances in IT increased successes of Artificial Intelligence (AI) reports This let to use of knowledge-based systems for solving various decision making problems in business and management (Salo et al, 1992). Review of the literature clears that in recent years, using FL is rapidly increasing in all area of decision making especially in the economic, business and accounting Using this technique is very promising when we face to uncertainty (Klir, 1987). The purpose of this paper is to utilize FL to analysis and management of cash flows
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