A Fuzzy Model for Reasoning and Predicting Student’s Academic Performance

Abstract

Evaluating students’ academic performance is crucial for assessing the quality of education and educational strategies. However, it can be challenging to predict and evaluate academic performance under uncertain and imprecise conditions. To address this issue, many research works have employed fuzzy concepts to analyze, predict, and make decisions about students’ academic performance. This paper investigates the use of fuzzy concepts in research related to evaluating, analyzing, predicting, or making decisions about student academic performance. The paper proposes a fuzzy model, called FPM (Fuzzy Propositional Model), for reasoning and predicting students’ academic performance. FPM aims to address the limitations of previous studies by incorporating propositional logic with fuzzy sets concept, which allows for the representation of uncertainty and imprecision in the data. FPM integrates and transforms if-then rules into weighted fuzzy production rules to predict and evaluate academic performance. This paper tests and evaluates the FPM in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the model predicts and examines the impact of absenteeism on academic performance where there is no clear relation between the two parts of the dataset. In the second scenario, the model predicts the final exam results using the lab exam results, where the data are more related. The FPM provides good results in both scenarios, demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting and evaluating students’ academic performance. A comparison study of the FPM’s results with a linear regression model and previous work showed that the FPM performs better in predicting academic performance and provides more insights into the underlying factors affecting it. Therefore, the FPM could be useful in educational institutions to predict and evaluate students’ academic performance, identify underlying factors affecting it, and improve educational strategies.