A Fuzzy Model for Personnel Risk Analysis: Case of Russian-Finnish Export-Import Operations of Small and Medium Enterprises

Abstract

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have limited resources for balancing risks which occur during international activities. The main hypothesis tested in this research is that the qualification of employees is the main area of personnel risks in cross–border cooperation. The fuzzy-logic model for personnel risks analysis was developed for quantification of the risks related to international activities. First, different risk factors and their elements were identified and formulated as linguistic variables. Second, with the use of experts’ judgments, a fuzzy logic-based system was constructed and evaluated. Risk level was calculated using MATLAB fuzzy logic toolbox and its factors were ranked accordingly. This model was applied to survey data from SMEs on Russia-Finland import-export operations during the 2020 – 2021 period. The personnel risk related to export-import Russia - Finland operations belonged to the above-average risk levels. Based on a more detailed analysis of risk elements, such elements as personnel development and training had the greatest coefficient and is an obvious high-risk area. The second highest value of the risk coefficient belonged to the element associated with personnel management. The lowest value belonged to elements related to motivation and recruitment processes. Therefore, theoretical contribution of the article is a model which allows us to quantify and identify micro-level personnel related risks in cross-border cooperation and present linguistic interpretation of these risks. This model can be use in practice by managers of specific SMEs or policy makers for obtaining broader and more representative results on risks related to international activities.