A fuzzy management decision support system for scenario analysis

Abstract

Journal of Electronics ManufacturingVol. 04, No. 01, pp. 1-9 (1994) PAPERSNo AccessA fuzzy management decision support system for scenario analysisL.P. KHOO, N.C. HO and T.W. CHOAL.P. KHOOSchool of Mechanical and Production Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 2263, Singapore Search for more papers by this author , N.C. HOGINTIC Institute of Manufacturing Technology, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 2263, Singapore Search for more papers by this author and T.W. CHOASchool of Mechanical and Production Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 2263, Singapore Search for more papers by this author https://doi.org/10.1142/S096031319400002XCited by:7 Next AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail AbstractForecasting the future is an important aspect of strategic planning. In recent years, an increasing number of corporate planners and forecasters have been turning to forecasting techniques to assist them in management decision-making. This paper presents a fuzzy management decision support system for scenario analysis. The system, developed in dBFAST, comprises two modules: data input and scenario generation. It is aimed at emulating the expert’s reasoning process in forecasting. It adopts a hybrid technique—a combination of fuzzy Delphi analysis and fuzzy reasoning—for problem solving. Three widely accepted forecasting techniques—the Delphi method, trend impact analysis and cross-impact analysis—are briefly reviewed. The hybrid technique developed and the details of the fuzzy management decision support system for scenario analysis are described. Using a case study on the penetration of computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) in the electronics industry in Singapore as an example, the performance of the system is discussed.Keywords:Fuzzy reasoningfuzzy Delphi analysisscenario analysiscross-impact analysistrend impact analysisDelphi methodcomputer-integrated manufacturingquantitative reasoningqualitative reasoning FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited By 7Multi-person Collaborative Augmented Reality Assembly Process Evaluation System Based on HoloLensJingFei Wang, YaoGuang Hu and XiaoNan Yang29 May 2022Hybrid intelligent scenario generator for business strategic planning by using ANFISSorousha Moayer and Parisa A. Bahri1 May 2009 | Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 36, No. 4Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for generating scenarios in business strategic planningSorousha Moayer, Parisa A. Bahri and Ali Nooraii1 Oct 2007A PDES/STEP-based model and system for concurrent integrated design and assembly planningX.F Zha and H Du1 Dec 2002 | Computer-Aided Design, Vol. 34, No. 14A fuzzy-based genetic approach to the diagnosis of manufacturing systemsL.P. Khoo, C.L. Ang and J. Zhang1 Jun 2000 | Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 13, No. 3Designing with scenarios: A critical review of current research and practiceDespina Filippidou1 Mar 1998 | Requirements Engineering, Vol. 3, No. 1Framework of a fuzzy quality function deployment systemL. P. KHOO and N. C. HO1 Feb 1996 | International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 34, No. 2 Recommended Vol. 04, No. 01 Metrics History Received 1 August 1993 Accepted 1 October 1993 KeywordsFuzzy reasoningfuzzy Delphi analysisscenario analysiscross-impact analysistrend impact analysisDelphi methodcomputer-integrated manufacturingquantitative reasoningqualitative reasoningPDF download