A Fuzzy Logic Inference Model for the Evaluation of the Effect of Extrinsic Factors on the Transmission of Infectious Diseases

Abstract

COVID-19 is a contagious disease that poses a serious risk to public health worldwide. To reduce its spread, people need to adopt preventive behaviours such as wearing masks, maintaining physical distance, and isolating themselves if they are infected. However, the effectiveness of these measures may depend on various factors that differ across countries. This paper investigates how some factors, namely outsiders’ effect, life expectancy, population density, smoker percentage, and temperature, influence the transmission and death rate of COVID-19 in ninety-five top-affected countries. We collect and analyse the data of COVID-19 cases and deaths using statistical tests. We also use fuzzy logic to model the chances of COVID-19 based on the results of the statistical tests. Unlike the conventional uniform weighting of the rule base in fuzzy logic, we propose a novel method to calculate the weights of the rule base according to the significance of the factors. This study aims to provide a comprehensive and comparative analysis of the factors of COVID-19 transmission and death rates among different countries.