A fuzzy logic-based risk assessment framework for the crude oil transportation supply chain

Abstract

This study proposes a novel approach to increase the efficiency of crude oil transportation by integrating fuzzy logic and the TOPSIS method. The proposed technique addresses the uncertainties and imprecisions in decision-making processes to identify the optimal shipping alternatives. The study also evaluates the static and dynamic risk indicators related to the transportation of crude oil. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is found to be a promising option for crude oil shipments, reducing the risks associated with current routes. Using a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodology, the research determines China's most efficient crude oil supply channel using a fuzzy-based Improved TOPSIS approach. The economic feasibility of the CPEC option has been confirmed through a thorough cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Additionally, the optimal mode of transportation from CPEC seaports to Western China is determined using the fuzzy-based Improved TOPSIS method. The MCDM criteria considered in all scenarios include time, financial outlays, energy consumption, environmental impact, and security risks. The results indicate that the CPEC route and the maritime route via Myanmar outperform the conventional route that passes through the seaports of Eastern China. This study emphasizes the significant advancement in decision-making in crude oil transportation made possible by the fuzzy-based Improved TOPSIS technique.