Abstract
Many models have been developed to forecast wind farm power output. It is generally difficult to determine whether the performance of one model is consistently better than that of another model under all circumstances. Motivated by this finding, we aimed to integrate groups of models into an aggregated model using fuzzy theory to obtain further performance improvements. First, three groups of least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) forecasting models were developed: univariate LS-SVM models, hybrid models using auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) and LS-SVM and multivariate LS-SVM models. Each group of models is selected by a decorrelation maximisation method, and the remaining models can be regarded as experts in forecasting. Next, fuzzy aggregation and a defuzzification procedure are used to combine all of these forecasting results into the final forecast. For sample randomization, we statistically compare models. Results show that this group-forecasting model performs well in terms of accuracy and consistency.
Highlights
Along with science and technology in general, wind power technology has developed rapidly.Because wind power technology is mature, many medium- and large-sized wind farms have been built and put into operation
Wind power has become an important source of the entire power system; worldwide, the installed wind power capacity was 157.9 GW in 2009, representing an annual growth of 20% over the preceding 10 years
Wind energy resources available in China are estimated at GW, ranking the country third after Russia and the U.S In recent years, wind power has experienced rapid development in China, as the capacity increased from 0.34 to 25.8 GW between and 2009
Summary
Along with science and technology in general, wind power technology has developed rapidly.Because wind power technology is mature, many medium- and large-sized wind farms have been built and put into operation. Wind power has become an important source of the entire power system; worldwide, the installed wind power capacity was 157.9 GW in 2009, representing an annual growth of 20% over the preceding 10 years. Wind energy resources available in China are estimated at GW, ranking the country third after Russia and the U.S In recent years, wind power has experienced rapid development in China, as the capacity increased from 0.34 to 25.8 GW between and 2009. If an accurate short-term wind power output forecast is available, the power dispatching department can adjust scheduling in accordance with changes in wind power output to ensure power quality and reduce the system’s excess capacity and power system cost. Short-term wind power forecasts are of key importance [2,3,4]
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