Abstract
A fuzzy expert system methodology is proposed, based on the combination of bow-tie diagrams and fuzzy set theory. It was designed to support the management of supply-chain (SC) disturbances. Such disturbances are understood as risks to the SC. This methodology includes a phased process starting with the analysis of potential disturbances using cause-and-effect diagrams, followed by a bow-tie analysis relating disturbances, causes, barriers and consequences, used to derive fuzzy rules applied in the SC risk assessment, and ending with advice on mitigating measures to control the consequences of disturbances. The evaluation of the methodology based on scenarios offered promising results about its capabilities.
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