A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process for risk evaluation of urban rail transit PPP projects

Abstract

The Public-Private Partnership (PPP mode) has been widely used in the field of transportation infrastructure. It can relieve the debt pressure of local governments and improve the efficiency of resource allocation. However, due to the long life cycle of urban rail transit PPP projects and numerous participants, the potential risks arising from the coordination of multi-party relations have become a major obstacle to the development of urban rail transit PPP mode. Based on the perspective of the PPP project company (SPV), this paper adopts the method of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, takes Shenzhen Metro Line 4 project as the research object and constructs the risk index system from nine dimensions to evaluate the risks of PPP project. Political risk, legal risk and project promotion risk are the most important risk indicators, while relationship risk and force majeure risk take the lowest proportion. According to the above results, the risk management system, risk sharing scheme and countermeasures in key risk areas are proposed. The study not only applies the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to the research of urban rail transit risks, but also provides a systematic risk assessment basis and prevention and control reference for the smooth implementation of PPP projects.