A future so close: Mapping 10 years of promises and futures across the augmented reality development cycle

Abstract

When the augmented reality (AR) industry was first forming, many hyperbolic futures were imagined. These futures served important functions, whether it was growing the community, motivating investors, or setting priorities for AR companies. Over time, however, futures and collective expectations for the technology can change dramatically. This study analyzes two futures data sets to understand 10 years of futures surrounding AR—one from years of participant observation at AR conferences, the other from a digital archive of media about wearable technologies called FABRIC. By comparing a 10-year period of futures as AR moved across stages of the development cycle, this study identifies specific ways in which flows of discourses worked to shape the conferences, which in turn shaped the collective futures and expectations about AR. This study builds on our empirical and theoretical understanding of futures by comparing futures across multiple levels (macro/micro) and longitudinally mapping the interrelationships between streams of futures.