A Future Basis for National Security and International Policy

Abstract

THE PPRIMARY basis for national security and international security policy in the United States may be quite different in the next century from the accepted norms and considerations employed in the past. The elements of a nation’s development have always included factors such as energy production and consumption, environment, food, water, minerals, and economics. However, these elements have in modern times begun to play a crucial role in national security and international relations, and these aspects will become more important and more interrelated in the future. They are already strongly interactive and global, and this characteristic will also increase in the future. Attempts to solve problems in one element will have strong effects on other elements, not just locally, but globally. A critical problem for this century, and the one we focus on in this article, is the supply of fresh water for human use. The existing scientific and historical data base in this area is mature enough to use the analysis of this problem as an example to illustrate the above points. Assurance of such a basis for national security and international policy will require changes in current paradigms, and these will present new challenges for the scientific community and government policy makers. An integrated and global prospective must be developed if we are to have a sound national security policy in the future.