A future airliner’s reduced-crew: modelling pilot incapacitation and homicide-suicide with systems theory

Abstract

One main hurdle towards commercial airliners’ Reduced-Crew Operations (RCO) is how to encounter pilot incapacitation. The aim of this modelling study is to evaluate the potential effects of a single-pilot’s incapacitation on a future design approach to RCO. Most solutions propose a ground support of the pilot by a remote operator whom control should be handed over in case of an emergency. Both incapacitation and homicide-suicide have been discussed in the literature but neither of these events have been modelled nor evaluated empirically. We introduce a future operational design concept for RCO which includes a remote-copilot as ground support and automation tools monitoring pilot’s health and entries into aircraft systems. The hazard analysis technique System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) was used to model and analyse scenarios of incapacitation/homicide-suicide. A hierarchical control structure showed how RCO can be embedded into commercial aviation. The STPA of pilot incapacitation and two scenarios of pilot homicide-suicide showed how unsafe control actions leading to an incident or accident after incapacitation/homicide-suicide could be prevented. The possible detection and take-over of control by the ground support in the case of incapacitation raised the question for detailed procedures on how to react to its detection. Either an autoland by the remote-copilot or by an affiliated system is possible. An additional breakup of data-link may only be solved by an automatic landing system on-board.