Abstract
Abstract. The Taiwan Water Resources Agency uses four techniques to monitor subsidence in Taiwan, namely data from leveling, global positioning system (GPS), multi-level compaction monitoring wells (MCMWs), and interferometry synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). Each data type has advantages and disadvantages and is suitable for different analysis tools. Only MCMW data provide compaction information at different depths in an aquifer system, thus they are adopted in this study. However, the cost of MCMW is high and the number of MCMW is relatively low. Leveling data are thus also adopted due to its high resolution and accuracy. MCMW data provide compaction information at different depths and the experimental data from the wells provide the physical properties. These data are suitable for a physical model. Leveling data have high monitoring density in spatial domain but lack in temporal domain due to the heavy field work. These data are suitable for a black- or grey-box model. Poroelastic theory, which is known to be more conscientious than Terzaghi's consolidation theory, is adopted in this study with the use of MCMW data. Grey theory, which is a widely used grey-box model, is adopted in this study with the use of leveling data. A fusion technique is developed to combine the subsidence predicted results from poroelastic and grey models to obtain a spatially and temporally connected two-dimensional subsidence distribution. The fusion model is successfully applied to subsidence predictions in Changhua, Yunlin, Tainan, and Kaohsiung of Taiwan and obtains good results. A good subsidence model can help the government to make the accurate strategies for land and groundwater resource management.
Highlights
Subsidence is a worldwide hazard (Galloway et al, 1999; Chen and Rybczyk, 2005; Galloway and Burbey, 2011)
Changhua and Yunlin counties are located in the north and south divisions of Jhuoshuei River Alluvial Fan, respectively
The Xinghua and Xizhou multi-level compaction monitoring wells (MCMWs) are in Changhua County and the Yunchang and Jiaxing MCMWs are in Yunlin County
Summary
Subsidence is a worldwide hazard (Galloway et al, 1999; Chen and Rybczyk, 2005; Galloway and Burbey, 2011). A technique that can fuse the results of physics-based and grey-box-based models would make the prediction of land subsidence more reasonable and reliable (Wang, 2015). Wang et al.: A fusion model used in subsidence prediction in Taiwan fuse two types of time series for subsidence prediction results in both the spatial and temporal domains and applied to subsidence fusion in Jhuoshuei River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan. Wang et al (2015) adopted this fusion technique to combine the physics-based nonlinear poroelastic model (NPM) and the grey-box-based grey system model (GSM) to evaluate the subsidence under the climate change effect in Tainan, Taiwan and got good results. The authors have applied the fusion technique to predict the subsidence in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, which is not yet published
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