A further model for temporal patterns in the epidemiology of schistosome infections of snails.

Abstract

The prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni infections of Biomphalaria pfeifferi shows seasonal variation. Field data from Zimbabwe show annual ranges from 0 to 7%. In this paper a mathematical model of B. pfeifferi population dynamics and S. mansoni epidemiology is used as a framework for analysis of these patterns. Snail fecundity is a function of snail age and of temperature, and is apparently affected by other seasonal factors. The pre-patent period is dependent on temperature. Infection affects snail fecundity and mortality. Parameter values are derived from previous field and laboratory studies. The force-of-infection is estimated from the analysis of size-prevalence data. Using observed temperatures, model output agrees well with field data on snail abundance and prevalence of infection over a 14-month period. Seasonal variation in prevalence largely reflects variation in the pre-patent period and in snail population age structure. The possible role of seasonality in the force-of-infection is discussed. Prevalence patterns are not greatly affected by year-to-year differences in temperature. Significant seasonal variation in snail-man transmission rates is expected.