A Framework to Predict Community Risk from Severe Weather Threats Using Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI)

Abstract

Community assets, including physical structures and critical infrastructure, provide the essential services that underpin our communities. Their destruction or incapacitation from severe weather threats such as hail and tornadoes can have a debilitating impact on a community’s quality of life, economy, and public health. Recently, prototype Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) from the NOAA Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) program has been developed to reflect the rapidly changing nature of severe weather threats to support forecasters, emergency management agencies, and the public. This study develops a holistic framework to merge PHI with a geodatabase of local infrastructure and community assets to predict possible impacts during events and to assist with post-event recovery. To measure the degree of damage of each building, this study uses the predicted intensity from forecasters along with damage indicators from the Enhanced Fujita scale for a range of wind speeds associated with the predicted intensity. The proposed framework provides the possibility of (1) live prediction of risks to community assets due to local vulnerability, and (2) provision of detailed damage assessments, such as degree of damage of systems or assets, and affected areas, to emergency agencies, infrastructure managers, and the public immediately following an event. With further refinement and verification, this community risk assessment prediction may be able to better communicate possible impacts and improve community resiliency from severe weather threats by supporting multiple phases of emergency management, including preparedness, response, and recovery.