A framework of a data-driven model for ship performance

Abstract

An accurate assessment of a ship's required power is increasingly relevant for ship operations. We used a simplified framework of a data-driven model to predict ship's fuel consumption. Our approach was based on the learning capabilities of a generalized AutoML (Automated Machine Learning) process, trained with a variety of databases obtained from Computational-Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) simulations or from simplified numerical methods. These CFD simulations were conducted by solving the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, using the STARCCM + commercial CFD software to calculate the ship resistance at speed under different operating conditions. Initially, we conducted a statistical analysis to select the independent variables before fitting the regression models and identifying potentially wrong assumptions. The AutoML process allowed optimizing the model's hyperparameters and designing the topology of the neural networks. For a set of unknown scenarios, comparative predictions obtained from the data-driven model and from numerical simulations showed that the data-driven model, trained with results obtained from CFD simulations, accurately and efficiently predicted ship operational parameters under realistic operating conditions, thereby dispensing with the need to perform elaborate CFD computations. Specifically, this low-cost and efficient operational data-driven technique forecasted the ship's operational fuel consumption although only a limited amount of recorded operational data was available.