Abstract
This study investigated a model to assess the role of climate fluctuations on dengue (DENV) dynamics from 2010 to 2019 in four Brazilian municipalities. The proposed transmission model was based on a preexisting SEI-SIR model, but also incorporates the vector vertical transmission and the vector’s egg compartment, thus allowing rainfall to be introduced to modulate egg-hatching. Temperature and rainfall satellite data throughout the decade were used as climatic model inputs. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the role of each parameter. The model-simulated scenario was compared to the observed dengue incidence and the findings indicate that the model was able to capture the observed seasonal dengue incidence pattern with good accuracy until 2016, although higher deviations were observed from 2016 to 2019. The results further demonstrate that vertical transmission fluctuations can affect attack transmission rates and patterns, suggesting the need to investigate the contribution of vertical transmission to dengue transmission dynamics in future assessments. The improved understanding of the relationship between different environment variables and dengue transmission achieved by the proposed model can contribute to public health policies regarding mosquito-borne diseases.
Highlights
Accepted: 16 August 2021Dengue is a viral mosquito-borne disease that has four serotypes (DENV-1, DENV2, DENV-3 and DENV-4) and is transmitted by Aedes aegypti [1] and Aedes albopictus [2]mosquitoes
This work proposed and analyzed a transmission model to represent the dynamics of DENV transmission
The model provides a framework for understanding weather-driven dengue transmission considering rainfall dependency, one of the challenges for these type of models [50,51]
Summary
Accepted: 16 August 2021Dengue is a viral mosquito-borne disease that has four serotypes (DENV-1, DENV2, DENV-3 and DENV-4) and is transmitted by Aedes aegypti [1] and Aedes albopictus [2]mosquitoes. The ecology of the DENV vector has been widely studied and modelled taking into account temperature-dependency, which is regarded as the main seasonality driver of this disease [3,4,5]. DENV transmission dynamics [6,7,8] In these transmission models, the explicit inclusion of the vector population compartment is usually represented by the adult stage, which is the stage responsible for transmitting the DENV virus to humans [9,10]. The explicit inclusion of the vector population compartment is usually represented by the adult stage, which is the stage responsible for transmitting the DENV virus to humans [9,10] This representation limits the ability to study the effects of certain environmental factors on specific immature stages of the vector. For example, requires an explicit egg compartment of the model that can incorporate egg longevity in the environment, allowing them to act as a long-term virus reservoirs
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