A framework for train derailment risk analysis

Abstract

This study aims to develop a framework based on the Nadal formula to assess train derailment risk. Monte Carlo simulation was adopted to develop 10000 sets of random parameters to assess train derailment risk subject to the curvature radius of the track, the difference between the flange angle and the equivalent conicity, and accelerations from 250 to 989.22 gal during horizontal earthquake. The results indicated that railway in Taiwan, China has no derailment risk under normal conditions. However, when earthquakes occur, the derailment risk increases with the unloading factor which is caused by seismic force. The results also show that equivalent conicity increases derailment risk; as a result, equivalent conicity should be listed as one of maintenance priorities. In addition, among all train derailment factors, flange angle, equivalent conicity and unload factors are the most significant ones.