Abstract
The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure.
Highlights
In 1995, the former World Bank Vice-President Ismail Serageldin claimed that “the wars of the century will be about water” [1]
This consumption category is followed by commercial activities whereas industrial, parks and gardens, agriculture categories and others are found have a lower contribution to total water demand
Water continues to become a highly critical and scarce resource for cities, there is a little research done for analyzing the long-term sustainability of urban water management in Istanbul
Summary
In 1995, the former World Bank Vice-President Ismail Serageldin claimed that “the wars of the century will be about water” [1] Whether this hypothesis comes true or not, we are living in a world becoming constrained by water and the human beings are facing with serious social and economic problems related to accessibility of clean water resources. Turkey is not a water rich country and the World Water Foundation (WWF)’s recent report on the water footprint of Turkey shows that country might be faced with serious water shortages by 2030 due to rising population, consumption, industrialization, and agricultural production [5] In this regard, the use of forecasting models for understanding the long-term sustainability of water demand and supply becomes necessary
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