Abstract
Construction below the ground surface and underneath the groundwater table is often associated with groundwater leakage and drawdowns in the surroundings which subsequently can result in a wide variety of risks. To avoid groundwater drawdown-associated damages, risk-reducing measures must often be implemented. Due to the hydrogeological system’s inherent variability and our incomplete knowledge of its conditions, the effects of risk-reducing measures cannot be fully known in advance and decisions must inevitably be made under uncertainty. When implementing risk-reducing measures there is always a trade-off between the measures’ benefits (reduced risk) and investment costs which needs to be balanced. In this paper, we present a framework for decision support on measures to mitigate hydrogeological risks in underground construction. The framework is developed in accordance with the guidelines from the International Standardization Organization (ISO) and comprises a full risk-management framework with focus on risk analysis and risk evaluation. Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) facilitates monetization of consequences and economic evaluation of risk mitigation. The framework includes probabilistic risk estimation of the entire cause–effect chain from groundwater leakage to the consequences of damage where expert elicitation is combined with data-driven and process-based methods, allowing for continuous updating when new knowledge is obtained.
Highlights
With increasing global urbanization follows a land-use conflict which results in increased demand for locating infrastructure such as roads and rails below the ground surface [1]
The complex dynamics of the cause–effect chain representing the relationship of leakage and various effects and consequences is handled with probabilistic risk analysis describing the nonbinary risk origin from several situations with varying probabilities and consequences
The inevitable and changing uncertainties between different project phases associated with underground construction is handled by means of value of information analysis (VOIA), a continuous monitoring and review, and an iterative process following the principles of the observational method
Summary
With increasing global urbanization follows a land-use conflict which results in increased demand for locating infrastructure such as roads and rails below the ground surface [1]. Dewatering of groundwater resources induced by leakage into underground constructions is common to many underground projects around the world, see for example [2,3]. Groundwater drawdown induced by leakage can affect large areas surrounding the underground facility [4,5]. To reduce the risk of costly damages, it is in both the project owner’s and society’s interest to implement risk-reducing measures. Risk-reducing measures constitute sealing (grouting or watertight concrete lining), for example, to reduce leakage [17] and artificial recharge to maintain stable groundwater levels [18,19], often in combination.
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