Abstract
Yousefpour, R., C. Temperli, J. B. Jacobsen, B. J. Thorsen, H. Meilby, M. J. Lexer, M. Lindner, H. Bugmann, J. G. Borges, J. H. N. Palma, D. Ray, N. E. Zimmermann, S. Delzon, A. Kremer, K. Kramer, C. P. O. Reyer, P. Lasch-Born, J. Garcia-Gonzalo, and M. Hanewinkel. 2017. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change. Ecology and Society 22(4):40. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09614-220440
Highlights
Climate change is a challenge for forestry because of the direct impacts on forest ecosystems and the long time span between management decisions and the results obtained
We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario
We suggest a systematic framework to address the challenge of a forward-looking adaptive forest management (AFM) strategy by decomposing it into three components: (1) expert and layman knowledge and the updating of beliefs; (2) a wide-ranging set of alternative management options; and (3) approaches to decision-making analysis and simulation that account for all the challenges reviewed above
Summary
Climate change is a challenge for forestry because of the direct impacts on forest ecosystems and the long time span between management decisions and the results obtained. Adaptive forest management (AFM) in a changing climate is at the core of contemporary forest management research (Bolte et al 2009, Temperli et al 2012, Yousefpour et al 2012). Decision makers may have their own perceptions and beliefs about the degree of change (and not the causes of climate change being anthropogenic or not), and they adjust decisions (Yousefpour et al 2014). Beliefs refers here not to the cause of climate change and whether it is anthropogenic or not, but to the degree to which it may happen. European forest landscapes vary strongly with respect to their socioeconomic context and bioclimatic conditions
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