Abstract
Climate change and human activities are having increasing impacts on the global water cycle, particularly on streamflow. Current methods for quantifying these impacts are numerous and have their merits and limitations. There is a lack of a guide to help researchers select one or more appropriate methods for attribution analysis. In this study, hydrological modeling, statistical analysis, and conceptual approaches were used jointly to develop a methodological options framework consisting of three modules, to guide researchers in selecting appropriate methods and assessing climatic and anthropogenic contributions to streamflow changes. To evaluate its effectiveness, a case study in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) of China was conducted. The results suggest that the SWAT-based method is the best approach to quantify the influences of climate change and human activities on streamflow in the UYRB. The comprehensive assessment indicates that climate change is the dominant cause of streamflow changes in the UYRB, and the contribution of climate change, indirect human activities, and direct human activities to streamflow changes is about 7:1:2. The proposed framework is efficient and valuable in assisting researchers to find appropriate methods for attribution analysis of streamflow changes, which can help to understand the water cycle in changing environments.
Highlights
Streamflow is one of the most important elements of the hydrological cycle and is key to understanding hydrological processes at various spatial and temporal scales under changing environments (Penny et al, 2020; Jiang et al, 2021; Porter et al, 2021; Wright et al, 2021)
It is clear that streamflow in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) decreased by a rate of −0.77 km3 per year during 1951–2013
This study aims to provide guidance for the selection of appropriate methods to quantify the climatic and anthropogenic influences on streamflow
Summary
Streamflow is one of the most important elements of the hydrological cycle and is key to understanding hydrological processes at various spatial and temporal scales under changing environments (Penny et al, 2020; Jiang et al, 2021; Porter et al, 2021; Wright et al, 2021). Streamflow has been significantly altered by the combined effects of climate change and human activities (Liu et al, 2019; Yasarer et al, 2020; Zeng et al, 2021). Changes in two important climatic variables, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration, jointly influence the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of water resources (Borgwardt et al, 2020). The sixth assessment report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) notes that global mean precipitation and evaporation increase with global warming (high confidence). This will undoubtedly accelerate the change in streamflow.
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