Abstract
Understanding the consequences of rising CO2 and warming on marine ecosystems is a pressing issue in ecology. Manipulative experiments that assess responses of biota to future ocean warming and acidification conditions form a necessary basis for expectations on how marine taxa may respond. Although designing experiments in the context of local variability is most appropriate, local temperature and CO2 characteristics are often unknown as such measures necessitate significant resources, and even less is known about local future scenarios. To help address these issues, we summarize current uncertainties in CO2 emission trajectories and climate sensitivity, examine region-specific changes in the ocean, and present a straightforward global framework to guide experimental designs. We advocate for the inclusion of multiple plausible future scenarios of predicted levels of ocean warming and acidification in forthcoming experimental research. Growing a robust experimental base is crucial to understanding the prospect form and function of marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene.
Highlights
Rising atmospheric CO2 will continue to alter ecosystems worldwide through concomitant global warming and ocean acidification (OA) [1,2,3]
Advances have been made in understanding the consequences of these anthropogenic drivers (e.g. [4,5,6]), our ability to anticipate the future of ecosystems requires quantifying responses to a palette of plausible future full range of the WGIII AR5 scenario database in 2100 annual emissions (GtCO2 yr–1)
The limited availability of local data and the need for a framework on how to choose experimental levels is highlighted by a review of temperature and CO2 experiments along the west coast of the USA, which found that 80% and 13% of the studies gave no rationale for royalsocietypublishing.org/journal/rsos R
Summary
Rising atmospheric CO2 will continue to alter ecosystems worldwide through concomitant global warming and ocean acidification (OA) [1,2,3]. The selection of plausible scenarios for experimental research is complicated by spatial and temporal variation, uncertainties in future CO2 emission trajectories and associated climate sensitivity (figure 1). Such uncertainties pose a substantial challenge for researchers who must inevitably simplify expected CO2 concentrations and temperature in their experimental designs. We summarize current uncertainties in CO2 emissions trajectories and provide a parsimonious framework that includes a comprehensive set of plausible CO2 and warming scenarios, with the aim to aid in the design of climate change experiments when local characteristics and future projections are lacking
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