Abstract
A changing climate, in particular a warming ocean, is likely to impact marine industries in a variety of ways. For example, aquaculture businesses may not be able to maintain production in their current location into the future, or area-restricted fisheries may need to follow the fish as they change distribution. Preparation for these potential climate impacts can be improved with information about the future. Such information can support a risk-based management strategy for industries exposed to both short-term environmental variability and long-term change. In southern Australia, adverse climate impacts on valuable seafood industries have occurred, and they are now seeking advice about future environmental conditions. We introduce a decision tree to explain the potential use of long-term climate projections and seasonal forecasts by these industries. Climate projections provide insight into the likely time in the future when current locations will no longer be suitable for growing or catching particular species. Until this time, seasonal forecasting is beneficial in helping industries plan ahead to reduce impacts in poor years and maximise opportunities in good years. Use of seasonal forecasting can extend the period of time in which industries can cope in a location as environmental suitability declines due to climate change. While a range of short-term forecasting approaches exist, including persistence and climatological forecasts, only dynamic model forecasts provide a viable option for managing environmental risk for marine industries in regions where climate change is reducing environmental suitability and creating novel conditions.
Highlights
Marine industries such as fisheries and aquaculture have historically coped with interannual and seasonal environmental variability that affects the presence, growth, and survival of many species (Callaway et al, 2012; Hobday et al, 2016; Salinger et al, 2016)
Under long-term climate change, new conditions will be encountered, and past experience may no longer be as useful in managing businesses (Hobday et al, 2016)
New approaches to cope with future environmental conditions may be needed
Summary
Marine industries such as fisheries and aquaculture have historically coped with interannual and seasonal environmental variability that affects the presence, growth, and survival of many species (Callaway et al, 2012; Hobday et al, 2016; Salinger et al, 2016). We introduce a conceptual framework to help climate-proof these marine industries by using a combination of climate and seasonal forecasting that recognizes the influence of both long-term trends and short-term environmental variability In this regard, we define climate-proofing as the development of strategies that can equip businesses with skills or information to manage or reduce the risk from climate change. If the particular aquaculture or fishing operation needs to have both summer and winter temperatures below these example thresholds, the time period of suitable conditions is abbreviated These results should be considered indicative, as they are the results from a single model run with no estimate of uncertainty (Stock et al, 2011), but they illustrate how the time between first and permanent exceedance represents a window in which to use seasonal forecasting, whilst developing a solution for when conditions become permanently unsuitable (Figure 1). If only a small southward relocation distance is selected by a fishing or aquaculture business, it will likely be necessary to relocate again in future, while a move too far south may be premature for best conditions
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
