A frailty index based on routine laboratory data predicts increased risk of mortality in Chinese community-dwelling adults aged over 55 years: a five-year prospective study

Abstract

BackgroundFrailty can be operationalized based on the accumulation of deficits using a frailty index (FI) and is associated with an increased risk of adverse health outcomes. Here, we aim to compare validity of a FI from laboratory data with that of the common clinical FI for prediction of mortality in adults aged 55 + years, also examine whether combined FI could improve identification of adults aged 55 + years at increased risk of death.MethodsData for this analysis were obtained from the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging that involved 1,257 community-dwelling Chinese people, aged 55 + years at baseline. The main outcome measure was 5-year mortality. An FI-self-report based on 30 self-reported health-related data was constructed. An FI-lab was developed using laboratory data, in addition to pulse, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, body mass index (BMI) and waist. A combined FI comprised all items from each FI. Kaplan–Meier survival curve and Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluate the risk of each FI on death. The area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves were used to compare the discriminative performance of each FI.ResultsOf 1257 participants, 155 died and 156 lost at the end of the 5-year follow-up. The mean FI-self-report score was 0.11 ± 0.10, the FI-lab score was 0.33 ± 0.14 and FI-combined score was 0.19 ± 0.09. Higher frailty level defined by each FI was associated with higher risk of death. After adjustment for age and sex, Cox proportional hazards models showed that the higher scores of frailty were associated with a higher risk of mortality for each FI, the hazard ratios for the FI-self-report and FI-lab and FI-combined were 1.04 (1.03 to 1.05) and 1.02 (1.01 to 1.03) and 1.05 (1.04 to 1.07), respectively. The areas under the ROC curve were 0.79 (0.77–0.82) for the FI-self-report, 0.77(0.75–0.80) for the FI-lab and 0.81(0.78–0.82) for FI-combined.ConclusionsA FI from laboratory data can stratify older adults at increased risk of death alone and in combination with FI based on self-report data. Assessment in clinical settings of creating an FI using routine collected laboratory data needs to be further developed.