A fractional-order multi-vaccination model for COVID-19 with non-singular kernel

Abstract

This work examines the impact of multiple vaccination strategies on the dynamics of COVID-19 in a population using the Atangana-Baleanu derivative. The existence and uniqueness of solution of the model is proven using Banach’s fixed point theorem. Local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibria of the model is also proven (under some conditions). Conditions for the existence of a unique or multiple equilibria are also derived and the model is shown to undergo backward bifurcation under certain scenarios. Using available data for the Pfizer, Moderna and Janssen vaccination programme for the city of Texas, United States of America from March 13, 2021 to June 29, 2021, the model is fitted using the three data sets. The three vaccination rates ν1,ν2 and ν3 corresponding to each vaccine as well as the effective contact rate for COVID-19 transmission, β, are estimated. Simulations of the model under different vaccination strategies are carried out. The results show that the three vaccination strategies not only cause significant reduction in the new asymptomatic and vaccinated symptomatic cases but also cause great decrease in the total number of vaccinated symptomatic individuals with severe COVID-19 illness.