A fractional-order model of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with governmental action and individual reaction.

Abstract

The deadly coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) has recently affected each corner of the world. Many governments of different countries have imposed strict measures in order to reduce the severity of the infection. In this present paper, we will study a mathematical model describing COVID‐19 dynamics taking into account the government action and the individuals reaction. To this end, we will suggest a system of seven fractional deferential equations (FDEs) that describe the interaction between the classical susceptible, exposed, infectious, and removed (SEIR) individuals along with the government action and individual reaction involvement. Both human‐to‐human and zoonotic transmissions are considered in the model. The well‐posedness of the FDEs model is established in terms of existence, positivity, and boundedness. The basic reproduction number (BRN) is found via the new generation matrix method. Different numerical simulations were carried out by taking into account real reported data from Wuhan, China. It was shown that the governmental action and the individuals' risk awareness reduce effectively the infection spread. Moreover, it was established that with the fractional derivative, the infection converges more quickly to its steady state.