Abstract
The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), or COVID-19, has emerged and spread at fast speed globally; the disease has become an unprecedented threat to public health worldwide. It is one of the greatest public health challenges in modern times, with no proven cure or vaccine. In this paper, our focus is on a fractional order approach to modeling and simulations of the novel COVID-19. We introduce a fractional type susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model to gain insight into the ongoing pandemic. Our proposed model incorporates transmission rate, testing rates, and transition rate (from asymptomatic to symptomatic population groups) for a holistic study of the coronavirus disease. The impacts of these parameters on the dynamics of the solution profiles for the disease are simulated and discussed in detail. Furthermore, across all the different parameters, the effects of the fractional order derivative are also simulated and discussed in detail. Various simulations carried out enable us gain deep insights into the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19. The simulation results confirm that fractional calculus is an appropriate tool in modeling the spread of a complex infectious disease such as the novel COVID-19. In the absence of vaccine and treatment, our analysis strongly supports the significance reduction in the transmission rate as a valuable strategy to curb the spread of the virus. Our results suggest that tracing and moving testing up has an important benefit. It reduces the number of infected individuals in the general public and thereby reduces the spread of the pandemic. Once the infected individuals are identified and isolated, the interaction between susceptible and infected individuals diminishes and transmission reduces. Furthermore, aggressive testing is also highly recommended.
Highlights
Coronavirus, known as COVID-19, has suddenly become a global pandemic that has overtaken the world by surprise, has become “cancerous” cutting across economic, politics, and social issues
5.2 Numerical results and analysis We present the numerical simulations of the proposed time-fractional order COVID-19 system to study the spread and containment strategies of the coronavirus infection
We investigate the effects of the transmission rate in the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19
Summary
Coronavirus, known as COVID-19, has suddenly become a global pandemic that has overtaken the world by surprise, has become “cancerous” cutting across economic, politics, and social issues. Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a public epidemic disease in January 30, 2020, and in less than two months it was declared a pandemic with a great concern. As on July 10, 2020, based on the report from Johns Hopkins University & Medicine: Coronavirus Resources Center, there are over 12.4 million COVID-19 cases worldwide with over 550,000 deaths. According to CDC in the USA, the total number of cases in the USA is over 3.1 million with over 134,000 deaths. There are more than 210 countries involved. This is definitely an invisible enemy with no boundaries, and very urgent intervention is needed to understand the disease.
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