Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The fractal kinetic approach that we propose here originates from chemical kinetics and has successfully been used in the past to describe reaction dynamics when imperfect mixing and segregation of the reactants is important and affects the dynamics of the reaction. The model introduces a novel epidemiological parameter, the "fractal" exponent h which is introduced in order to account for the self-organization of the societies against the pandemic through social distancing, lockdowns and flight restrictions.
Highlights
As of March 30, 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been confirmed in 782,213 people worldwide, leading to 37,579 deaths
Various approaches to model COVID-19 epidemics have been published in the literature recently based on various hypotheses [2, 3] Our model follows the principles of fractal kinetics [4] which is suitable for chemical reactions under “topological constraints” e.g. insufficient mixing of the reactant species
The “fractal” exponent h quantifies the self-organization of the societies against the pandemic through social distancing, lockdowns and flight restrictions
Summary
As of March 30, 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been confirmed in 782,213 people worldwide, leading to 37,579 deaths. There is an urgent need to model the growth of COVID-19 worldwide. The classical epidemiological approach for the study of growth relies on the reproduction number and infection time, which leads to an exponential growth. Various approaches to model COVID-19 epidemics have been published in the literature recently based on various hypotheses [2, 3] Our model follows the principles of fractal kinetics [4] which is suitable for chemical reactions under “topological constraints” e.g. insufficient mixing of the reactant species. There is a full analogy between the governments’ measures to ensure social distancing for the control of epidemics and the reactions taking place in low dimensions or insufficient stirring [4,5,6]
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