A Formal Theory of Public Opinion in Conflicts

Abstract

This paper presents a theoretical model of interaction between a government and ordinary people over the issue of public support for war. I assume that interests of the government are not perfectly aligned with those of citizens, but public support is important for the success of war. The government can send, through mass media, signals to ordinary people, in order to secure public support for military actions. I find that higher costs of influencing media make the war less likely and, conditional on its happening, less costly. There is also a positive effect of uncertainty about the costs of war on public support, but it matters only if media are easy to influence for the government. Empirical evidence from Russian data on public opinion about Chechen conflict is consistent with theoretical predictions.