Abstract
A formal approach to modeling the expansion of natural events is presented in this paper. Since the mathematical, statistical or computational methods used are not relevant for development, a modular framework is carried out that guides from the external observation down to the innermost level of the variables that have to appear in the future mathematical-computational formalization. As an example we analyze the expansion of Covid-19. We perform a qualitative estimation of the impact of the causes on the delays of the spread and an analysis of the parameters.
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