A forest fire hazard model and map for a wildland urban interface not meteorologically prone to forest fires

Abstract

Fire Hazard (FH) modelling is a relevant fire prevention/assessment tool. This work proposes a FH model and generates a FH map for a wildland urban interface area in Germany that is not prone to extreme fires. The main input data include weather, topography, fuel, and anthropic-related potential ignition points. The main steps include (1) identification/description of weather scenarios, and for each scenario (2) analysis of potential fire ignition through simulation of Fire Probability (FP), (3) modelling the potential fire behaviour through simulation of Fireline Intensity (FLI), (4) generation of a FH map by combining FP and FLI maps, and (5) integration of all maps into a final FH map. Extreme ignition and propagation conditions were considered: (1) a fuel model that describes the fire performance in an extreme drought scenario, (2) the human influence through mechanistic ignitions, and (3) the worst case of all scenarios. As results, four weather scenarios were identified and described. FP maps, FLI maps, and FH maps were created for each of them, and finally an integrated FH map (IFHM) was derived.