A foreign policy oriented toward personal interests: An analysis of Bolsonaro's approach to multilateralism

Abstract

AbstractHistorically, Brazilian diplomacy has centered its foreign policy strategy on multilateral institutions. Multilateralism has not only been an instrument to share the political costs of international decisions but also a defensive mechanism, due to Brazil's modest military capability. In this article, we consider that Bolsonaro's multilateral foreign policy represents the rupture of narrative. Departing from the premise that foreign policy is a public policy, hence subjected to domestic constituencies, Bolsonaro's conservative project is constructed in the intersection between domestic politics and the international system. First, we introduce our main hypothesis, that he employs an ideology of anticommunism, antiglobalism, and negationism to assure the loyalty of specific constituencies despite potential disruptions to collective interests and national long‐term strategies. Next, we connect the internal to the external by comparing Bolsonaro's approval in public opinion polls and his proposition or support of domestic laws to Brazil's stance in multilateral forums. To verify the validity of our argument, we aim to identify patterns of external behavior that correspond to the president's political ideas and guidelines and to concrete interests of domestic constituencies.