A forecasting methodology for predicting frazil ice flooding along urban streams using hydro-meteorological data

Abstract

Flooding due to ice jams in urban streams, resulting in damages to residential and commercial property, is a common problem in northern regions. Ice-related flooding events have occurred on several occasions along the lower reach of Spencer Creek within Hamilton, Ontario. This study is completed to develop a methodology using the available flow and temperature data to predict the potential for occurrence of flooding due to frazil ice accumulation. Meteorological and hydrometric data as well as historical information were collected and analyzed. Degree days of freezing and mass flow curves for previous events were investigated. Two indices for temperature and flow were defined. A methodology was developed to predict the potential of flooding using the defined curves and indices based on current temperature and flow data. This methodology is currently being used to predict potential occurrence of frazil ice flooding along Spencer Creek and may be adapted for use in other watercourses in Canada and elsewhere.