A forecast of the performance of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in the London 2012 Olympic Games

Abstract

This paper aims to forecast the performance of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in the 2012 London Olympic Games. Previous research has relied primarily on population size and gross domestic product (GDP) to predict Olympic performance but the methodology used here follows the approach of Shibli and Bingham (2008), who predicted that China would win 46 gold medals in Beijing 2008. This approach is based on the thesis that elite performance is now more a matter of managed public investment and therefore less dependent on non-controllable variables such as population size and GDP. The Shibli and Bingham forecasts proved to be the most accurate forecast made, even though it was five medals short of China's total of 51 gold medals. In this paper, we extend the analysis to include total medals as well as gold medals and conclude that Great Britain and Northern Ireland will win 27 gold medals in London 2012 and 56 medals in total. Furthermore, we can reasonably expect Great Britain and Northern Ireland to win medals in 15 sports and 18 disciplines. If our forecasts prove to be accurate, then on all four measures 2012 will be Great Britain's best performance in the Olympic Games since 1908.