Abstract
Vegetation dynamics is very sensitive to environmental changes, particularly in arid zones where climate change is more prominent. Therefore, it is very important to investigate the response of this dynamics to those changes and understand its evolution according to different climatic factors. Remote sensing techniques provide an effective system to monitor vegetation dynamics on multiple scales using vegetation indices (VI), calculated from remote sensing reflectance measurements in the visible and infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. In this study, we use the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), provided from the MOD13Q1 V006 at 250 m spatial resolution product derived from the MODIS sensor. NDVI is frequent in studies related to vegetation mapping, crop state indicator, biomass estimator, drought monitoring and evapotranspiration. In this paper, we use a combination of forecasts to perform time series models and predict NDVI time series derived from optical remote sensing data. The proposed ensemble is constructed using forecasting models based on time series analysis, such as Double Exponential Smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variables for a better prediction performance. The method is validated using different maize plots and one olive plot. The results after combining different models show the positive influence of several weather measures, namely, temperature, precipitation, humidity and radiation.
Highlights
We developed forecasting and estimation models for the behavior of NVDI using satellite measures
The technological advances in unmanned vehicle systems (UAVS) that acquire normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data at low altitude [46] are of great help to monitor vegetation and crops with high spatial and radiometric precision, because they eliminate the effects of the atmosphere in the acquisition of reflectivity values in red and infrared
Derived satellite combination of models applied to monitor crop dynamics, afrom forecast algorithm applied to vegetation indices (NDVI)
Summary
Vegetation dynamic is very sensitive to environmental changes, in arid zones where climate change is more prominent. It is very important to investigate the response of this dynamics to those changes and understand its evolution according to different climatic factors. Pointed out as a cumulative effect on vegetation in combination with environmental changes that generates a temporary delay in the response of plants, this must be considered in order to understand the variations in vegetation and predict its changing characteristics under future climate changes [1,2,3,4,5]. Several studies claim that the main factors that determine the relationship between vegetation and climate change are temperature and precipitation [6]
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