Abstract
Abstract A cyclone that developed over the eastern United States during December 1992 is investigated using a potential vorticity (PV) framework. Upon partitioning the perturbation PV field (which includes the near-surface potential temperature distribution) into upper-level (UL), low-level (LL), and lower boundary (LB) components, the extent to which particular PV anomalies contribute to the cyclone development is quantified by inverting the PV distribution associated with each component. In addition, the accuracy of a 48–84-h forecast, produced by the CCM2 version of NCAR's Community Climate Model, is assessed. The assessment primarily concerns the 36-h geopotential height tendencies forced at 850 mb by the individual components of the analyzed and forecast PV tendency fields. It is found that the lower boundary (923 mb) thermal wave accompanying the storm is amplified mostly by the winds associated with an upper-level disturbance and that latent heating plays an important, but secondary, role in near-s...
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